It’s time to put the wraps on the second round of NBA Playoff betting. Twenty three games were played between the four series and the straight up winner of those games went an astounding 21-0-2 ATS, meaning that the pointspread never even came into play. Even more “eerie” is the fact that both pushes came on the same day (5/11).

When we started these playoff reports many weeks ago, we began by taking about the fallacy that is home team dominance, both from a SU and ATS perspective. In 1st Round play, hosts went just 22-23 ATS (31-14 SU) proving our theory true. None of the eight series went without at least one win by the visitors.

The same was true of the four second round series as each featured at least one win by the road team. Sunday night featured the first Game 7 road win by any team these playoffs as Orlando went into Boston and crushed the defending champion Celtics by 19 points. That snapped a six-game winning streak by hosts in Rd 2, which concluded with a 14-7-2 ATS mark by home teams, much better than what we saw in Round One. However, they were only 15-8 straight up, with three of those losses coming in the Magic/Celtics series.

Over bettors started like a house of fire in Round 1, cashing eight of the first ten games (with one push). However, only 12 of the final 35 first round games would then go Under. Through 16 games of second round betting, there was no advantage as we found an 8-8 over/under split (all four Game 1’s went Under, all four Game 2’s went Over). Game Five of the Denver/Dallas series wound up going Over, but for a second straight round it was all Unders down the stretch as both seven-game series (Bos/Orl & Hou/LAL) both saw all remaining games go under. That brings our final tally to 14-9 in favor of Under bettors.

Now onto a preview of the Conference Finals……

Despite the fact that many talking heads on television have lent credence to the chances of the respective underdogs in the two series, Cleveland and the Lakers remain prohibitive favorites to advance to the NBA Finals. The Cavs are the solid choice to win the NBA Championship at Bodog Sportsbook at 20/37 odds. Both Conference Finals feature a history of one side dominating in head to head play.

Denver is no worse than 9-1 ATS at the betting window this playoff season. They are probably 9-0-1 ATS or even 10-0 ATS, depending on your Game 4 result vs. Dallas. However, the Western Conference Finals could be their “Waterloo” as they run into the one team they have struggled against through the years in the Lakers. The Nuggets are just 4-11 ATS L15 games vs. LA, including 1-7 ATS in Staples Center. The Lakers swept the Nuggets in last year’s first round playoff series, covering every game and winning by double digits three times.

The teams met twice early in the season, both times in November, and each time the Lakers walked away with an easy win and cover. It was during that time that Denver made one of the greatest heists in recent NBA trade history, dealing Alan Iverson for Chauncey Billups. And while the first game with Billups vs. the Lakers did not go well, the next (in Denver) did as the Nuggets won 90-79, snapping a nine-game losing streak to LA.

Something will have to give with the total in this series. Denver has gone Over in each of its last four games while the Lakers have gone Under in each of their previous four contests. Ten of the last fifteen head-to-head meetings between the teams have gone Under the total. How will the long layoff affect the Nuggets?

One also has to wonder how the long layoff will affect the favored Cleveland Cavaliers in the East. Like Denver, the Cavs also have a poor history against their opponent in the Conference Finals. The Orlando Magic have won eight of the last 11 meetings and covered nine of the last ten, including all five in Cleveland, where the Cavs are now 43-2 straight up this season. In fact, the last time Cleveland lost a game with LeBron James (sat out regular season finale) in the starting lineup was on 4/3 in Orlando, 116-87. The Cavs actually trailed by 40+ in the game.

Another similarity Cleveland has with Denver is that they have been a money making machine during the playoffs at 7-0-1 ATS (neither has lost a home game either). They have won every game by double-digits, which has never been done before in NBA history. The oddsmakers certainly think LeBron and company have little to worry about as they have been installed at -800 odds to win the series.

We’ll be back next week with our mid-round report.

Good luck, Lenny.

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