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Top Ten CFB Countdown, Part I
by Lenny Del Genio
Everyone, it seems, has USC penciled in as No. 1 for 2007, even the oddsmakers, who have made them the favorite. However, preseason No. 1 teams more often than not do not win it all. Look no further than last season, when No. 1 Ohio State got blasted in the title game by Florida. Two years ago USC was No. 1 most of the season, then lost to Texas in their epic title tilt to Texas.
There have been plenty of “out of nowhere” champions, as well, such as Oklahoma in 2000 and Ohio State in 2002. USC has a loaded defense returning, plus QB John David Booty. However, they are not as strong offensively as the last two years, with guys like Leinart, Bush, White off to the NFL two years ago and their great WR tandem from last season (Smith and Jarrett) also gone. And the schedule is very tough, with road games at Cal, Notre Dame and Nebraska. I would say they drop at least one game (after all, last year’s better offensive team still lost two games). If that happens, it appears to be a wide-open race for the national title, so here’s a look at my projected Top 10 finish.
10. South Carolina: Steve Spurrier’s teams have overachieved and now he gets some of the guys he recruited plus a talented returning group. He has 17 starters back, including a veteran QB in senior Blake Mitchell. Spurrier will have fun with this passing game, returning junior WR Kenny McKinley and TE Jared Cook. Oh, and 10 starters are back on a solid defense. Spurrier is 7-3 SU, 9-1 ATS on the road at South Carolina and they get defending champion Florida at home.
9. West Virginia: Rich Rodriguez has built a great program at West Virginia, and for 2007 he has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. How about averaging 38 points and 303 rushing yards? That’s what last year’s team did while going 11-2. No team has more speed on offense with junior QB Pat White (1,219 rushing yards) and junior RB Steve Slaton (1,744 yards). The secondary needs to improve after allowing 243.3 passing yards per game (17 TDs), but they get rival Louisville at home.
8. Auburn: Coach Tommy Tuberville’s Tigers always seem to fly under the radar, but when the season ends they are one of the best teams in the nation, going 13-0, 9-3 and 11-2 the last three seasons. He’s not fancy on offense, preferring the ground game, but this offense is stocked, with 7 starters back including senior QB Brandon Cox. The defense also has 7 starters back and they allowed just 13.9 points per contest. The defensive line, with Quentin Groves and Sen’Derrick Marks, is one of the best in the SEC. They were the only team to beat Florida last season, 27-17 as a dog. In fact, Auburn is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS its last five as a dog. The road schedule is tough, but there are only 4 road games and they are 12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS the last three years on the road.
7. California: Never underestimate a great coach in his prime, and the Golden Bears have one in Jeff Tedford. Tedford has 7 starters back on offense, including junior QB Nate Longshore (24 TDs, 13 INTs) and the best receiving corps in the country with junior WR’s DeSean Jackson and LaVelle Hawkins. That offense averaged 32.8 points and 253 yards passing. The defense also returns 5 starters to a very strong unit. The schedule sets up nicely, too, getting an early revenge game at home against Tennessee (trailed 35-0 last year) and hosting USC in November. A win there and we might have a new Pac 10 champ.
6. Florida State: Football fans had given up on aging Joe Paterno a few years ago, then his team exploded in 2005 and went 11-1 (losing only at Michigan on the final play). Longtime Florida State coach Bobby Bowden might be in a similar situation. Coaching moves in football can do a lot to turn things around (just look at Tulsa under Steve Kragethorpe and Cal under Jeff Tedford). The Seminoles made huge changes to the staff, bringing in Chuck Amato and OC Jimbo Fisher (who helped LSU to a national title in 2003), among others. And there is ample talent on the field, with a loaded defense (8 starters back) and 7 on offense, including junior QB Drew Weatherford. The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games as a dog and in a position for a bounce-back season.
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