NBA Playoff Journal (May 21)
by Larry Ness
The first round of this year's NBA postseason saw just one sweep, the Magic eliminating the Bobcats in four games. The second round surprisingly featured THREE sweeps in the four series, with only the Celtics/Cavs series going more than the minimum amount games (Boston eliminated Cleveland in six games). Not much has changed in the conference finals, as the Celtics have opened a 2-0 lead over the Magic by winning both games in Orlando in the East while the Lakers have done the same, opening a 2-0 lead over the Suns in the West with two home wins.
The Celtics suffered the worst home playoff loss in team history in Game 3 of their series with the Cavs (124-95) but haven't lost since. Boston won three straight games to finish off LeBron and the Cavs and have taken a 2-0 lead over the Magic (previously unbeaten in this year's postseason at 8-0 and with a 14-game overall winning streak heading into the Eastern Conference finals) with two wins in Orlando. The Celtics have now won five straight postseason games (5-0 ATS) while holding their opponents (three vs the Cavs and two vs the Magic) to an average of just 88.0 PPG. Boston is now 10-3 SU and ATS this postseason, holding opponents to under 100 points in all 10 of its wins (10-0 ATS).
The Lakers found themselves tied with the Thunder 2-2 in their first round series but like the Celtics, haven't lost since. The Lakers finished off Oklahoma City 4-2, swept the Jazz 4-0 and now own a 2-0 lead over the Suns in the Western Conference finals. That's eight straight wins (7-1 ATS) in which LA has averaged 111.9 PPG, while allowing 101.0. The Lakers have scored 128 and 124 points in the first two games of their series with the Suns, shooting 58.0 and 57.7 percent in those games, respectively.
The stage is set and NBA playoff history greatly favors the Celtics and Lakers advancing to this year's NBA Finals. Teams taking a 2-0 lead in seven-game series have gone on to win 217 of 231 previous series (that's 93.9 percent), all-time. The Celtics are in a stronger position than the Lakers, as they have won the first two games of their series on the road. It should be noted that just TWO of the 14 teams which have overcome an 0-2 deficit in a seven-game series and eventually win, have done so after losing the first two games of that series at home.
The most recent team to do so was the 1994 Rockets, who lost 118-102 and 107-96 at home to the Suns during the semifinals, before rallying to win that series in seven games. Houston would go on to win the team's first NBA title that season, beating the Knicks in a seven-game NBA Finals. The Rockets would win a second straight title the following season, again overcoming an 0-2 deficit to the Suns in the semis, although in this instance, the Rockets lost the first two games in Phoenix (note: that was a pretty bad two-year playoff run for Sir Charles and his Suns).
The only other team to overcome an 0-2 series deficit when losing the the first two games at home was the 1969 Lakers. They lost the first two games of their semifinal series vs the Warriors at home but the won the next four games of that series by scores of 115-98, 103-88, 103-98 and 118-78. Ironically, that Lakers team would advance to the NBA finals where they'd meet the Celtics. LA won the first two games of that series (120-118 and 118-112) but after the home team won the first six games of that year's Finals, the Celtics beat the Lakers 108-106 in Game 7 at Los Angeles. Let me note here that the Lakers are 41-1 all-time when owning a 2-0 lead in a seven-game series with that loss in the 1969 NBA Finals being the lone exception!
Can either the Magic or Suns get back in their respective series? The Celtics were not a great home team this year (24-17) during the regular season but the Celtics have looked like a totally different team this postseason. Still, Boston's home record including the postseason is a modest 29-18 SU and a poor 17-29-1 ATS. The Magic are 29-16 SU away from home this year, including a 4-0 postseason record. The Celtics are favored by 3 1/2 points in Saturday's Game 3 (8:30 ET on ESPN) and the total is 190. The Suns seemingly have no answer for LA's big men but one can't ignore the team's 18-3 SU (16-4-1 ATS) home mark since the All Star break. Phoenix is favored by three points in Sunday's Game 3 (8:30 ET on TNT) and the total is 219.
Home teams are 43-24 (.642) this postseason, going 39-28 (58.2 percent) ATS. There have been 32 overs, 32 unders and three pushes for those playing totals while followers of the Zig Zag theory have gotten 'buried' since going 19-18 ATS in the first round. "Zig-Zaggers" are 3-13 ATS over the last 16 opportunities and are now 22-31 or minus-12.1 net games this postseason. My next journal will be available Monday by 2:00 ET.
Good luck...Larry
Get all of Larry's winning sports picks
at Vegas Experts.
