NBA Playoff Journal (May 10)
by Larry Ness

NBA home teams 'ruled' during the first round of the 2010 playoffs, going 32-13 (.711) and 29-16 ATS (64.4 percent). Home teams opened the second round in much the same manner, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS through Thursday. However, Friday and Saturday saw all four visiting teams win. It all began when the Cavs crushed the Celtics 124-95 in Game 3, handing the Celtics their worst home playoff loss ever and taking a 2-1 lead in the series. Later that night, the Suns shook off an 18-point first-half deficit at San Antonio and went on the beat the Spurs, 110-96. Goran Dragic, of all people, scored 23 of his 26 points in a brilliant fourth quarter in which the Suns outscored the Spurs 39-24.
The 'carnage' continued for home teams on Saturday, as the Magic routed the Hawks 105-75 (had won Game 1 by 43 and Game 2 by 14) and the Lakers won Game 3 in Utah, 111-110. Unlike the Orl/Atl game, the Lakers/Jazz Game 3 was terrific, as there were 12 lead changes in the fourth quarter alone, as LA escaped with a one-point win only after Williams missed a last-second jumper AND Matthews missed a wide-open tip-in (at the buzzer!). Heading into Sunday's two games, three of the four series saw 3-0 leads by one team (Lakers, Magic and Suns) with the Cavs threatening to go up 3-1 over the Celtics.
However, the Celtics were able to "stop the bleeding" of home teams by beating the Cavs 97-87 in Sunday's Game 4. Rajon Rondo was just spectacular, recording his fourth postseason triple-double by scoring 29 points, grabbing 18 rebounds and adding 13 assist. A game recap noted that Rondo became the third player in playoff history to have at least 29 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Big O had 32 points, 19 rebounds and 13 assists in 1963, and Wilt had 29 points, 36 rebounds and 13 assists in 1967. That's pretty impressive company!
KG and Ray Allen each had 18 points for Boston but Pierce continued to struggle, making 3-of-8 shots for nine points. Guarding LeBron really hurts his offense, as Pierce has shot just 32.0 percent vs the Cavs (4-of-18 on threes), while averaging only 11.8 PPG. However, he helped hold LeBron to a modest 22 points (nine rebounds and eight assists). Mo Williams continues his erratic play, as the Cleveland PG has made 12-of-22 shots (54.5%) in Cleveland's two wins during this series but just 4-of-18 (22.2%) in its two losses. The Cavs' bench had just 11 points on Sunday, compared to 31 in the Game 3 rout and 26 in the team's Game 1 win. Game 5 is set for Tuesday with the Cavs favored by 7 1/2-points (193 1/2).
The Suns rid themselves of more than a few demons on Sunday night, as a visiting team won for the FIFTH time in six games over the weekend (Friday-Sunday), finishing the Spurs off by the score of 107-101. The Spurs had eliminated the Suns four times in the postseason since 2003 (also in '05, '07 and '08) but the Spurs were no match for Phoenix in this series. The Suns averaged 109.5 PPG in the 4-0 sweep, after the Spurs had held the Mavs to just 92.8 PPG in a 4-2 opening round win. Nash did not let a Tim Duncan elbow slow him down in Game 4 (20 points and nine assists), as he beat the Spurs in a series for the first time in seven tries (had also lost twice to SA while with the Mavs).
With all the 'dust' settled from the weekend, home teams are now just 8-6 SU and 7-7 ATS in the second round to-date. They are 40-19 (.678) and 36-23 ATS (61.0 percent) since the beginning of the postseason (April 17) with 29 overs, 28 unders and two pushes. Those following the Zig Zag theory are 'gagging' these days, falling to 22-25 or minus-5.5 net games. Two more games are on tap tonight, with the Magic going for a sweep in Atlanta (8:05 ET) and the Lakers trying for the same in Utah at 10:35 ET (both game are on TNT).
The Magic are favored by 6 1/2-points and the total is 192 1/2. Orlando is the lone perfect team in this year's postseason, entering this game 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Magic haven't lost since April 2nd (13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS) and have won 27 of their last 30 games (going back to Feb 28). The Hawks are reeling and looking to avoid a second consecutive second-round sweep (Cavs swept them last year). The Lakers have eliminated the Jazz in each of the last two postseasons (4-2 and 4-1) and are hoping to match the Suns with a 4-0 sweep of the Jazz tonight in Salt Lake City. However, the Jazz are favored by three points with a total of 207.
Good luck...Larry
Get all of Larry's winning sports picks
at Vegas Experts.