College Hoops: Seven Days In March
by Larry Ness
Seven Days in May is a political thriller novel written in 1962 by Fletcher Knebel and was made into a motion picture in 1964 (I'm dating myself here). Since this is also a very political year, I thought I'd take a little "literary license" and title my latest article "Seven Days in March." Beginning on Tuesday, March 18 and ending on Monday, March 24, the NCAA tourney has gone from 65 teams to a "Sweet 16," the NIT from 32 teams to eight and the new CBI tourney (with little fanfare, by the way) has whittled its field from 16 to four teams.
I'll start with the NIT and CBI tourneys and then get to the "Big Dance." In both tourneys home teams and favorites have been synonymous. Home teams were 13-3 SU and just 8-8 ATS in first round NIT games, but went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in second round games. Both Florida (the two-time defending NCAA champs) and Ohio State (the team it in last year's title game), were regulated to the NIT this year and both advanced to the quarterfinals with two home wins and covers.
Florida will have to win at Arizona State on Tuesday night to make it to Madison Square Garden, while Ohio State gets a third straight home game on Wednesday night (against Dayton) in its bid to make the trip to NYC. The other two quarterfinal games are U Mass at Syracuse on Tuesday (a rematch of a Nov 28 game in the Carrier Dome which the Minutemen won, 107-100) and Ole Miss at VA Tech on Wednesday. The four winners head to Madison Square Garden for the semifinals (April 1), with the championship game being played on Thursday, April 3.
In the CBI, home teams/favorites have struggled ATS, going 1-7 in the first round (5-3 SU), but improving to 2-1-1 (4-0 SU) in the second round. The semifinals are Wednesday night, with Bradley visiting Virginia and Houston going to Tulsa. The Cougars and Golden Hurricane are C-USA rivals, having already met once this year, with the Cougars winning at home 92-81 on February 6. The Championship Series will be a best-of-three with the higher-seeded team playing at home in the first game (March 31) and, if necessary, the third (April 4).
Now to the NCAA tournament. All four No. 1 seeds made it to the Sweet 16, which should hardly come as a surprise. Typically, at least three of the four No. 1 seeds survive the first two rounds, although twice since the advent of the 64-team field (65 since 2001), we've seen two No. 1 seeds KO'd in their second-round games. In 2000, Arizona lost to No. 8 Wisconsin and Stanford lost to No. 8 North Carolina. In 2004, Kentucky fell to No. 9 UAB and Stanford (again!) lost to No. 8 Alabama. However, as we all know, we've never seen a Final Four made up of four No. 1 seeds.
North Carolina, this year's overall No. 1 seed, beat Mount St Mary's 113-74 and Arkansas, 108-77. The Tar Heels became just the third No. 1 seed to have won each of its first two games by at least 30 points. However, the bad news is, that the other two No. 1 seeds to do so, Arizona in 1998 and Duke in 1999, didn't go on to win the title those years. As for UCLA, while the Bruins were lucky to escape against Texas A&M, they did hold its first two opponents to just 78 points, the lowest total since Oklahoma A&M held its first two opponents to just 69 points in its first two games of the 1949 tournament (I wasn't around for that one!).
As for the two other No. 1 seeds, Kansas went 2-0 ATS with solid wins over Portland State and UNLV, while Memphis is 0-2 ATS, failing to cover as a 26-point favorite against Texas-Arlington on Friday (won 87-63) and then looked pretty shaky down the stretch in a 77-74 win over Mississippi State on Sunday. Overall, favorites have done very well in the 2008 tournament. Let's take a look.
Favorites went 24-7 SU (21-10 ATS) in the first round (excludes the St Mary's/Mia-Fla game which saw both sides favored at one time or the other) and 13-3 (9-7 ATS) in the second round. Throw in the play-in game in which Mount St Mary's won and covered as a seven-point choice and favorites are 38-10 SU, going 31-17 ATS. That's an impressive 64.6 percent. So what happened to 'Cinderella?' She's still alive and well in the form of Davidson, Villanova and Western Kentucky.
The highest seed to advance to last year's Sweet 16 was a No. 7 seed, so is it a surprise to see two No. 12s (Villanova and Western Kentucky ) and a No. 10 (Davidson), this year? Not at all. Three double digit seeds have made it to the Sweet 16 twice before in this decade alone, in 2001 and 2002. However, only once have four double digit seeds advanced this far (seeding began in 1979) and that was in 1999. Oklahoma (No. 13), Missouri State (No. 12), Miami-Ohio (No. 10) and Gonzaga (No.10) were all 'sweet' in 1999, with the Bulldogs advancing to the Elite 8, where they lost to U Conn, the eventual national champs.
We already know that there cannot be a repeat champion, as Florida didn't make the 65-team field. However, UCLA has a chance to make it to its third straight Final 4. Only three other schools have done that since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Kentucky made three consecutive appearances from 1996-1998 (made the title game each year, winning twice), Michigan State did it from 1999-2001 (won in 2000) and Duke made five straight Final 4 appearances from 1988-1992, winning the national title in 1991 and 1992.
UCLA and Kansas are both 33-3. If either school were to win the title, it would take four more victories and that school would match the single-season record for most wins in a year. Four schools have won 37 games in a single season in NCAA history, Duke in 1986 (37-3), UNLV in 1987 (37-2), Duke in 1999 (37-2) and Illinois in 2005 (37-2). However, none of those schools won the title. UNLV lost in the semifinals, while the other three teams all lost in the championship game.
Memphis enters Sweet 16 play at 35-1 and North Carolina at 34-2, meaning both schools have a chance to break the single-season mark over these next two weeks. North Carolina and Memphis cannot meet until the championship game, meaning it's possible for a 38-1 Memphis team to meet a 37-2 North Carolina team for the title.
Good luck, Larry
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