Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

The Phillies won against last night 7-2 over the Marlins as +124 dogs. This matches the most games over 500 of the season that was also attained back in May. For this team to accomplish this feet given all of their injuries makes Manuel a candidate for Manager of the Year. Phillies have now won 11 of their past 13 games and are just two games behind the NL East leaders the Atlanta Braves.

In last night’s game Kyle Kendrick threw 6 strong scattering 8 hits and allowing just 2 ER. More importantly, he walked none and recorded five strikeouts. The rest of the pitching order was more of the same and shows Manuel’s commitment to closer Brad Lidge. Jose Contreras pitched the 7th allowing just 1 hit. The Madson entered his set-up role for the 8th allowing 1 hit and striking out two. Lidge closed the game on just 14 pitches.

Lidge has struggled, but this is perhaps a sign that he is gaining confidence and will get back to his 2008 winning form where he did not blow one save the entire season. One concern, however, is that of the three batters he faced he did not get strike one. To novice baseball fan this may seem trivial. The best pitch in baseball is not a 100 MOH fastball, not a slider, not a knee breaking curve. It is strike one and it is even more important for the closer to get that first pitch strike.

The Phillies are hitting top to bottom now and only second baseman Valdez failed to get hit last night. Nearly as important is the patience the Phillies are showing at the plate working seven walks. The Phillies are batting over 300 with a 390 OBP over their past 7 games.

Tonight’s game features Roy Oswalt against Chris Volstad and this will be an enjoyable game to watch. Now, the Oswalt has had almost a week to get acclimated with his new team and more importantly his catcher Carlos Ruiz, I think you will see a dominating performance from him tonight. One of those reasons is that the Marlins are struggling at the plate batting just 222 with a 289 OBP over the past 7 games. The Marlins bullpen has been suspect as well posting a 4.94 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 52 home games this season.

Oswalt has posted a 4-4 record with a sparkling 2.97 ERA and a 1.058 WHIP in his 9 road starts this season. He just did not get any consistent run support over the past several seasons in Houston. Now, he arguably has one of the best offenses in the NL and will be the best once they get Utley and Howard back into the lineup. Volstad has completed six innings just twice in his past six starts and given the bullpen issues makes for a very daunting task for a Marlins win. Over his past three starts Volstad has posted a 6.43 ERA and a 1.857 WHIP.

Yet, with the obvious facts supporting the surging red hot Phillies there are situations that do support the Marlins. Here is a system that does supporting the Marlins and has posted a 46-18 record for 72% winners making 27 units since 2004. Play against road teams with an average offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs per game and now facing an average NL starter posting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game. I had highlighted the hitting woes above, but note that this is potentially good news now. Marlins are 18-8 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span this season.

Philadelphia has some very strong situations entering this game too. They are 25-9 (+14.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Oswalt is 35-9 (+23.8 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997. This fact is what has made Oswalt such a great starter in that he never seems to hit the “wall” of fatigue in the 162 MLB marathon. The exact anecdote for the Phillies to return to the World Series.

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