Every gambler wagering on baseball will agree that the starting pitchers are the most important factors when handicapping an MLB game. For instance, the Boston Red Sox are 50-36 this season, but are a much better team when Clay Buchholz (10-4) or John Lester (10-3) are starting on the mound, opposed to Tim Wakefield (3-7). While there are many handicapping angles to evaluate when researching the starting pitchers, such as how they perform when home or away, pitching during the day or night, and if they're pitching on natural grass or artificial turf, the most important factor is how the pitcher performs against the opponent's offensive lineup. What pitching really boils down to is how a starter handles an opponent's batting order...Is he able to overcome the hitting strength or bat speed of the opposing team or will they overpower him? It seems obvious, but when pitchers face each other, they aren't really pitching against each other, but rather against the opposing team's batters. When a game is handicapped in this manner, a sharp bettor can make more intelligent wagers and find value in the betting line.

Take for instance Friday, July 9th's Boston (50-36) at Toronto (43-44) match-up, where Boston (-135) was slightly favored on the road. Both teams started their ace southpaws, with Toronto sending Ricky Romero (6-5) to the mound and Boston starting John Lester (10-3). The general public might look at these starting pitchers and see that Ricky Romero is an impressive 4-1 (80%) at home this season and the Boston Red Sox are barely above the Mendoza Line, at 15-12 (55%) when facing a left-handed pitcher. A quick glance at those numbers may have an inexperienced bettor jumping on home dog Toronto and wondering why they are in the dog role. However, further research indicates that Toronto is a horrible 1-4 (20%) against Boston when Romero starts on the mound. Even worse, Romero is 0-3 (0%) at home against this Boston squad and has been knocked out in 5 innings or less in each of these 3 home starts, while allowing 19 Hits for 14 Earned Runs in just 12 Innings Pitched! Using Romero's numbers against Boston, a sharp player realizes that the Red Sox, even as road favorites, offer tremendous betting value.

Those cagey players were not surprised when Boston was leading 10-0 at the end of 3 innings, after shelling Ricky Romero once again for 10 Earned Runs. After knocking Romero out of the game after the 3rd inning and forcing Toronto to go to their bullpen much earlier than usual, Boston continued their route and eventually won the game 14-3. The Sox easy victory dropped Romero to 0-4 (0%) at home against Boston and proved to be a nice score for sharp bettors.

Carlo Campanella cashed on Boston's 14-3 victory over Toronto on Friday, as his "AL Pitching Mismatch of the Month." That victory improved the Iron Horse to 10-4 with his last 14 Guaranteed picks at Vegas Experts. Don't miss his next guaranteed winner!

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