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NFL Betting: Quarterback Angles
by Carlo Campanella

No one would argue that the most important handicapping factor, when betting baseball, is the starting pitcher. Take a quick look at the Texas Rangers, who are an impressive 80-61 (.567%) this season: As a team, they have the 7th best record in baseball, however, they are a better team when their ace, Scott Feldman, is on the mound. Texas is 19-7 (.730%) in games that Feldman started. Take him out of the starting rotation and Texas would be just 61-54 (.530%) this season. You can’t argue that the Rangers win 20% more of their games and are a better team when Feldman starts.

The same importance should be placed on the starting Quarterback when betting football. While the starting Quarterbacks don’t rotate like MLB pitchers, they are more profitable in specific situations. It only makes sense that some Quarterbacks play better at home or against a team they’ve already beaten. It would be expected that some veterans could look at game film and turn the tables on a team that they lost to in the last meeting, while a rookie Quarterback might continually lose to the same defensive schemes over and over again. On the other hand, some Quarterbacks beat the teams they should, while others play to the level of their competition.

A lot of handicappers don’t like using Key Angles or betting trends from the past, as teams change every season with free agency and wagering on a Key Angle from 10 seasons ago really doesn’t make much betting sense. However, Quarterback Key Angles are based on situations from a Quarterback’s career and most players repeat their performance in particular situations. Below are the Top 5 Quarterbacks in situations you find every week in the NFL.

(Note: All records are Against-The-Spread and do not include games played this season.)

Best Quarterbacks At Home
1. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (6-2 ATS)
2. Kyle Orton, Denver (12-5 ATS)
3. Phillip Rivers, San Diego (18-9 ATS)
4. Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay (13-8 ATS)
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (24-17 ATS)

Worst Quarterbacks At Home
1. Jay Cutler, Chicago (4-14 ATS)
2. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland (2-6 ATS)
3. Jason Campbell, Washington (6-13)
4. Aaron Rogers, Green Bay (3-5 ATS)
5. Marc Bolger, St. Louis (17-27)

Best Quarterbacks vs. Division Rivals
1. Aaron Rogers, Green Bay (5-1 ATS)
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (20-8 ATS)
3. Phillip Rivers, San Diego (12-5 ATS)
4. Tom Brady, New England (30-14 ATS)
5. Eli Manning, NY Giants (19-11 ATS)

Worst Quarterbacks vs. Division Rivals
1. Jay Cutler, Chicago (3-10 ATS)
2. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland (2-5 ATS)
3. Tony Romo, Dallas (5-10 ATS)
4. Marc Bolger, St. Louis (13-25 ATS)
5. Jason Campbell, Washington (5-7 ATS)

Best Quarterback In Dog Role
1. Jake Delhomme, Carolina (24-9 ATS)
2. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia (28-12 ATS)
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (14-6 ATS)
4. Tom Brady, New England (23-11 ATS)
5. Eli Manning, NY Giants (19-12)

Worst Quarterbacks In Dog Role
1. Matt Schaub, Houston (5-9 ATS)
2. Jay Cutler, Chicago (6-9 ATS)
3. Matt Hasslebeck, Seattle (16-24 ATS)
4. Marc Bolger, St. Louis (20-29 ATS)
5. Kurt Warner, Arizona (14-17 ATS)

Best Quarterbacks After Winning Previous Game
1. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (10-3 ATS)
2. Eli Manning, NY Giants (27-16 ATS)
3. Tom Brady, New England (55-38 ATS)
4. Phillip Rivers, San Diego (21-15 ATS)
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (31-23 ATS)

Worst Quarterbacks After Winning Previous Game
1. Jay Cutler, Chicago (2-13 ATS)
2. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (4-7 ATS)
3. Jason Campbell, Washington (5-8 ATS)
4. Tony Romo, Dallas (12-17 ATS)
5. Matt Hasslebeck, Seattle (26-36 ATS)

Carlo Campanella is a professional sports and horse racing analyst who knows about winning. Not only has he won several handicapping contests across the country, he has held some of the most prestigious positions in the gaming industry. Also known as The Iron Horse for his selective handicapping approach that’s produced long tern winning streaks and profit, he’s coming off another PROFITABLE Football season and is ready for the 2009 NFL Betting Season.

 
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