Did you know that the Atlanta Falcons have NEVER had back-to-back winning years during their 43 seasons as a pro franchise?

Matt Ryan led the Atlanta Falcons to an impressive 11-5 record and a Playoff appearance last NFL betting season as a rookie. Ryan was an offensive sensation, winning the “Rookie of the Year” award while having one of the best seasons for a Quarterback during his first year. His first year numbers were only bettered by Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning. In fact, Ryan had better statistics in his rookie season then some of the most highly touted Quarterbacks to ever enter the NFL Draft, including Stanford’s John Elway.

It started with Ryan tossing a Touchdown on his first NFL pass and was followed by some very impressive numbers while he showed his toughness by starting every game during the 16 Regular season games in 2008. After losing to Arizona in the first round of the Playoffs, Ryan accumulated 16 Touchdown Passes, 11 Interceptions, 3,440 Passing Yards and a 61.1% Completion Percentage.

It would make sense for Ryan to put up better numbers in 2009, given the fact that he now has a full season of experience under his belt, along with a better grasp of the Falcon’s offensive and the NFL in general. However, history tells us that Ryan’s numbers will drop- And drop in almost EVERY category!

Gamblers and Fantasy Football players should be ready to fade a Ryan-led Atlanta team during the upcoming NFL season! By taking a look at the careers of five Quarterbacks that achieved early success and eventually tossed Pro Bowl caliber seasons, I’ve uncovered some interesting results. The study included 5 NFL Quarterbacks: Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, San Diego’s Phillip Rivers, Minnesota’s Dante Culpepper, New England’s Tony Eason and Green Bay’s Brett Favre.

Of the 5 Pro Bowl Quarterbacks listed above, I found that ALL 5 produced a lower win percentage the season after their first year as the team’s starter!

Like Ryan’s 11-5 (68.8%) record last year, these five Quarterbacks ALL had winning records in that first season as the starter, combining for an impressive 53-18 record (74.6%)! In their second year as the starter, these Quarterbacks won 14.6% less of their overall games, posting a 39-26 record (60%).

In 2000 Culpepper led the Vikings to the exact same 11-5 record that Ryan posted with the Falcons, but then watched Minnesota stumble to a 4-7 record during his 11 starts the following year. Roethlisberger was an unbeaten 13-0 in 2004 (he didn’t start 3 games) while taking Pittsburgh to the AFC Title Game, but the Steelers’ fell to 9-3 during his 12 starts in 2005. In 2006, San Diego went 14-2 behind Phillip Rivers, but only managed an 11-5 end to the 2007 season. Only Favre won more games in his second attempt, however, he also lost more games, moving from an 8-5 record during his 13 starts in 1992 to 9-7 in his first full season in 1993.

Conclusion: Doubt that Ryan will fall from the 11-5 to 4-7 as Minnesota did behind Culpepper, but just as ALL 5 of these Pro Bowl QBs fell in win percentage, so will Ryan in 2009. If Ryan were to drop the 14.6% percent average in the study, the Falcons would end the year at 9-7. However, given their tough schedule that includes the New England, NY Giants, Dallas, Washington and Division rivals Carolina, Tampa Bay & New Orleans twice each, we’re predicting a 7-9 finish- Making it 44 STRAIGHT years that the Falcons won’t end with back-to-back winning records!

Note: Vegas has the Falcons at “8.5 Total Wins” this season for +105, we’re playing on “UNDER 8.5 Wins” at +105.

Ryan completed an impressive 61.1% of his passes during his rookie season, just as ALL 5 of our Pro Bowl Quarterbacks completed better than 60% of their passes during their first seasons as the starter- I found that 4 of these 5 returned with a lower Completion Percentage during the next season!

Only Dante Culpepper improved in this category, completing an awesome 64.2% of his passes after earning a 62.7% in his first season. Tony Eason had the worst turnaround, dropping from a 60.1% to a disappointing 56.2% while Favre was a close second, dropping from an amazing 64.1% to a still respectable 60.9% the next year. Phillip Rivers started with a 61.7% but steadily declined to a 60.2%, while Roethlisberger had an excuse- his original 66.4% percentage was an almost impossible number to repeat, but he still earned a respectable 62.7% that next year while dropping almost 4%.

Conclusion: All of the 5 previous Quarterbacks completed above 60%, just as Ryan at 61.1%, and 4 of the 5 dropped the next season, but were still solid seasons that ended around the 60% level. Ryan is mainly a short-range passer and I feel this will be the category that he sees the least amount of change this season- Ryan ends 2009-2010 right around the 60.0% Completion Percentage!

Ryan tossed 16 Touchdown Passes last season- which was lower than ALL 5 of our previous Quarterbacks- And, 4 of those 5 Quarterbacks found the End Zone less often during their second try!

Only Brett Favre threw more TD passes in his second season, but it was only 1 extra score, improving from his total from 18 to 19 TD passes! Eason dropped horribly, from 23 to 11 (12 less), Culpepper fell from 16 to 11 (5 less), Rivers declined from 22 to 21 (1 less) and Big Ben remained even at 17.

Conclusion: Expect Ryan to end this season between 13-14 Touchdown Passes.

Matt Ryan was one of the passing yardage leaders at 3,440 last year. While it doesn’t compare to Dan Marino’s all-time record of 5,084, it was more than 4 of our 5 Pro Bowl Quarterbacks in this study. However, Ryan will be hard pressed to even come close to the 3,000 yard mark this season as 4 of our 5 Quarterbacks dropped significantly in passing yardage their next season!

Most of these Quarterbacks fell dramatically in this category, with only Favre improving, barely climbing from 3,227 to 3,303. Of course, we now know that Favre went on to be one of the best Quarterbacks in NFL history and “Number 4” could only improve by 76 yards, showing how that this is extremely difficult to accomplish! In fact, our first year leader, Dante Culpepper dropped from 3,937 to 2,612 for an incredible drop of over 1,000 yards (1,225)! Eason dropped from 3,228 to 2,156 (1,072 decrease), Rivers fell from 3,388 to 3,152 (236 decrease) and even Roethlisberger fell from an unimpressive 2,621 to 2,385 yards (also 236 decrease).

Conclusion: Weird- Both Big Ben and Rivers dropped EXACTLTY 236 yards, while Culpepper and Eason saw their production drop by more than 1,000 yards. If he were to fall the magical 236 yards, he’d end with 3,204 yards, but we’re going to “go large” and predict the 1,000 yard drop and for him to end the season right around the 2,500 yard mark!

Carlo Campanella is a professional sports and horse racing analyst who knows about winning. Not only has he won several handicapping contests across the country, he has held some of the most prestigious positions in the gaming industry. Also known as The Iron Horse for his selective handicapping approach that’s produced long tern winning streaks and profit, he’s coming off another PROFITABLE Football season and is ready for the 2009 NFL Preseason. Get EVERY Exhibition selection he makes based on his EXCLUSIVE 4-point Handicapping checklist: Coaching Staff, Playing Time, Injuries and Roster Moves! Get his “NFL Preseason Pass” for only $149.