NFL Preseason Betting
by Carlo Campanella
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Many players ask me if they should wager on the NFL Preseason games, and if so, what the most important handicapping factors are? You can make money during NFL Preseason betting, however, you must handicap the games differently from the regular season. I’ve listed my four-point handicapping list below that should used when deciding which games are worth wagering on.
I also recommend that only 30%-40% of their bankroll should be wagered - meaning for every $100 they would normally wager on a Regular season game, they would bet only between $30 and $40 during the Preseason- A $500 player, known as a “nickel player,” would make standard wagers of $150-$200 on their NFL Preseason picks.
1. Coaching Staff- How does the coach view preseason? Examine the exhibition record of the Head Coach during the past few seasons. Also, what is the coaches’ current status with the organization? For instance, does the coach already have his job, and contract locked up? Or, is his job on the line after a disappointing effort last year and needs to prove he can win?
2. Playing Time- How much time will the starters play this game? How many players are competing for starting positions? Is the team like the Patriots and already know that Tom Brady is their starter, or is there a Quarterback battle? If the team has been building through the Draft and free agency, they may have new players and rookies competing for their starting roles.
3. Injuries- These players have been off the football field since last February and every one of them is entering the season from a different perspective. For instance, Tom Brady missed the entire season following an injury and is looking to get back into playing condition, while an aging starting Quarterback like Peyton Manning knows the Colts offensive system and would gain more from resting his arm for the long season ahead than from an extra quarter of playing time.
4. Roster- If the team has lost players to preseason injuries, or they’ve already made their final cuts, they might want to “play it safe” and rest their key personnel in the final game or two of the exhibition season. Take a look at the teams that made the Playoffs last season, most of them only had 2 or 3 wins during the preseason. A preseason loss on their record is easier to swallow than losing a player for the beginning of the Regular season.
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