Carlo Campanella Horse Racing Handicapping Article: The Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby - And Then There Were Seven…
by Carlo Campanella

The legends made it look so easy back in the 1970's. Secretariat started it by sweeping the 1973 Triple Crown with amazing ease. It doesn't matter if you're an avid horse player or not, every sports fan can recall the image of "Big Red" romping down Belmont's stretch to win the final leg of the Triple Crown by 31-lengths. Just four short years later in 1977, another legend, Seattle Slew, claimed the crown. While race fans were still debating which of those two Champions were the better thoroughbred, Affirmed turned back Alydar in three consecutive battles in 1978. Those legends treated us to three Triple Crown winners during a six year span, including back-to-back winners!

Fast forward to 2008, it's been 30 years since Affirmed won the Triple Crown, but many have come close...very close. In fact, since 1997 six 3-year-olds have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, only to fail as favorites in the Belmont Stakes. Even though we've had to wait three decades for our next Champ, it's been worth the wait, as it's a settling feeling that we don't have to mention the names of Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones in the same breath as Secretariat and Slew. After failing to win the Belmont Stakes, none of these six experienced racing success expected of a Triple Crown Champion, or made much of an impact in the breeding shed.

There are no more prep races, only morning works- and dreams- as we wait to see if a new star emerges from this crop of 3-year-olds.

1) Big Brown hails from the barn of Richard Dutrow, Jr. and has been nothing short of awesome while compiling a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime record after taking Saturday’s $1 million dollar Florida Derby. So far, he’s won on both turf and dirt and has shown the ability to rate off the pace, or take his foes wire-to-wire. Probably the colt with the least amount of pedigree, sired by $10,000 stud Boundary, but that didn’t keep him from selling for a solid $190,000 at the Keeneland sales. Been working like gang busters in Florida while waiting to make his next start on Derby day. Biggest knock is that he’s lightly raced and gives experience to some of these rivals.

2) Pyro packs the best closing punch of the group and still owns the most consistent form of any 3-year-old in this crop, even after he failed to fire for the first time in his career in the Blue Grass Stakes. He never finished worse than third during his initial 6 starts, so we’re willing to toss out that poor effort as it was run over the Polytrack, while all of his previous races, and the Derby, dirt. In fact, he entered the Blue Grass in great form, earning back-to-back victories in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby. This colt is a son of Pulpit, who was sired by A.P. Indy, the former Belmont Stakes winner and one of today’s top sires. If you’re looking to knock this favorite, it could only be that his late closing run might get him into traffic trouble when facing 20 other runners on Derby day.

3) Cool Coal Man was once considered trainer Zito’s “other horse,” however, after War Pass was beaten in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has been given more of the limelight. Sired by $75,000 stud Mineshaft, another sire by A.P. Indy, he took the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream by stalking the leaders and sweeping by on the far turn. That was an impressive effort, however, he returned at Keeneland and failed to be a factor over the Polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes. Return to dirt will certainly be a big help on that first Saturday in May.

4) Colonel John has quietly amassed 4 wins from 6 lifetime races in Southern California, including back-to-back victories in Santa Anita’s Grade 2 Sham Stakes and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trained by Eoin Harty for his owner and breeder, WinStar Farm, the biggest knock against this son of Tiznow is that he’s been racing on the Polytrack and now must make the transition to the dirt at Churchill Downs.

5) Tale of Ekati is one of the most talented 3-year-olds in this crop, but also one of the most inconsistent. His debut was an awesome 8 length maiden score at Belmont Park and two races later he took the Futurity Stakes also at Belmont. Just when he was looking like the possible 2-year-old Champion, he was destroyed by almost 18 lengths by War Pass in the Breeder’s Cup. He seems to be back on track after turning the tables on War Pass, running him down at the wire in the Wood Memorial. Could win the Derby, just depends on which horse shows up.

6) War Pass Until his last 2 races, he was an unbeaten 5-for-5 and simply ran his competition off their feet while amassing Beyer Speed Figures up to 113. Those five victories came mostly in wire-to-wire efforts and when jockey Valasquez tried to rate him off the leaders in the Tampa Bay Derby, he folded up for his first loss, a 7th place finish while losing by 23 lengths. His connections realized that he may be “a need the lead” type and decided to come out of the gate with guns blasting in his next start. He was able to get to the lead, but received pressure every step of the way and he folded up late. With 20 starters in the Derby you can be sure of a tenacious pace, and now that he has been beaten twice, no one is afraid to go after him early.

7) Visionaire is trained by the ever-patient Michael Matz. If his name sounds familiar, he also trained another Kentucky Derby hero named Barbaro. Matz enters this year’s Derby with this son of Grand Slam, by Gone West who was purchased for $220,000 at the OBS Florida sales. Defeated Elysium Fields when they finished first and second in a maiden brawl, took the Gotham at Aqueduct, and was only 2 lengths behind Pyro finishing third in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. He enters the Derby off a poor 5th place finish in the Blue Grass, but willing to give him another chance on the return to dirt, especially when going 1 ¼ miles on Derby day.

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