NFL Preseason Week 1
by Brian Hansen
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Don’t let anyone tell you that preseason football is meaningless! Sure, the games may not count in the standings, but they put betting sides and totals up for a reason. And there are soft numbers and winning angles to be had, if you know where to look.
Perhaps the big winner came out of the first game, as the Redskins topped the Colts 30-16. There’s an old preseason wagering angle about backing the team with the new coach and it paid off again for Washington backers and new coach Jim Zorn. The same thing happened a year ago in the Hall of Fame game, as Pittsburgh’s new coach Mike Tomlin whipped the Saints, 20-7.
Zorn calls the plays for the Redskins and despite a shortage of wide receiver depth; he ran an uptempo West Coast attack that had the Colts confused. Zorn relied more on base packages instead of three-and four-receiver sets and used tight ends to compensate for the shortage of wideouts. QB Jason Campbell, backup Todd Collins and rookie QB Brennan completed 19 of 21 passes for 216 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Redskins certainly looked more focused on playing hard than the Colts in the second half, which isn’t unusual with new coaches. Last August the hard driving Tomlin went 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS. We will see if the Redskins continue to give a greater effort than most preseason teams, as well as a wide open offense.
Organization is needed on a football team of roughly 50 players, who need to be taught their roles and responsibilities each week. That's why good coaches are so invaluable. Even in preseason it can show. Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio is 15-5 SU, 14-6 ATS in preseason, Cleveland’s Romeo Crennel is 9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS, while Tampa’s Jon Gruden is 27-15 SU, 21-17-3 ATS in preseason. Longtime coaches Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan, with 5 Super Bowl titles combined, have winning preseason records both straight up and against the number.
Baltimore introduces John Harbaugh as the new head coach, the former Philadelphia Eagles secondary coach. They will take on the Patriots this weekend. One drawback is that the new coach has less than stellar QB experience, with Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco. On the plus side, Harbaugh has been running the players hard in practice, a totally different approach from predecessor Brian Billick.
A year ago the Detroit Lions started 3-0 over the total in preseason behind offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who loves an aggressive, pass-happy attack. Where is Martz this season? In San Francisco, as the 49ers new OC. It’s interesting that backup QB J.T. O'Sullivan has impressed in camp. O'Sullivan has gotten a lot of reps and looks game-ready; thanks to the head start he had from working as a backup in Martz's offense last year with the Lions. Identifying potential edges like this to exploit lines are essential in preseason football wagering (and regular season, for that matter).
You might think that teams that play in the Hall of Fame game have an edge the next week. The Colts and Redskins, for instance, will be playing their second preseason games this weekend while their opponents will be playing their first.
However, history shows the opposite to be true. The last four years the teams in the Hall of Fame game are 2-6 SU/ATS the following game against the more rested opponent. It appears the short week doesn’t help. A year ago the Steelers beat the Saints in the HOF game, and then lost at home to the Packers, 13-9, as chalk. The Saints came home and as a TD favorite, lost straight up to the Bills, 13-10. So much for the extra game under their belts!
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