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Brian Hansen MLB Baseball Handicapping Article: Baseball Scheduling Dynamics

  Sports Handicapping Article

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Baseball Scheduling Dynamics
by Brian Hansen

The NBA plays an 82-game regular season. Pro football plays a 16 game season with almost a week to rest and recuperate between games. Sometimes two weeks with byes during the regular season and the first round of the postseason for the top 4 teams.

Baseball is a far longer grind, 162 games, playing pretty much every day. That creates a different set of scheduling dynamics for handicappers to keep careful track of. Road trips of 6-10 games lasting a week or two are common, many times encompassing multiple time zones. This can throw off the equilibrium of players, upsetting sleeping patterns and daily routines that the body is used to. That can influence players on the field.

Look how the defending champion Red Sox opened the season: Two games in Tokyo, Japan, followed by three exhibition games in Los Angeles, then two more games that count in Oakland, followed by a 3-game series in Toronto. That's 10 games in 13 days, three different countries, and several times zones being crossed. One Red Sox coach said that while in Japan coaches and players were taking vitamins and sleeping pills because of all the changes.

So what happened on the field? Boston started 3-1, but went 3-1 under the total as the offense was most affected by all the travel. No one was hot at the plate, as the team scored 14 runs in four games. Then they got swept in Toronto, scoring 10 runs in three games before their home opener. It was a brutal schedule.

How did the team they played in Japan, the Athletics, fair? Oakland started the season 3-4 with little offense, going 5-2 under the total. The Red Sox recently got swept by Tampa Bay, and notice all three games were on the road. When they came home for a 6-game stand, the Red Sox were hot again, going 5-1. They even swept a 3-game series from the Rays, the same team that had just swept them in Tampa Bay. Coincidence? Of course not. This team has a history of playing much better at home, and notice in 2008 they've started 7-8 on the road, but 14-5 at Fenway.

After managing just five runs and 17 hits in Tampa Bay the previous weekend, the Red Sox offense sliced and diced its way to 26 runs and 39 hits in the three games at home against the Rays, lifting their team batting average eight points to .286. This week the Red Sox start on a 10-day, 10-game road trip. Watch those Boston bats carefully!

The Mets have been strong at Shea Stadium, but have struggled with a losing record on the road. They opened the season 2-3, with all five games on the road. Then, they went 6-3. What happened? Notice it was a 9-game home stand. That was followed by a 7-game road trip which ended on a 1-4 run.

That has prompted NY fans to get feisty. Now they are on a road trip out West. It was interesting that manager Willie Randolph admitted that the constant negativity from the fans at Shea Stadium so far this year, an obvious carryover from last September's epic collapse, has turned the road into a welcome refuge.

'In our mind, we moved on,' Randolph said of last season's historic meltdown. 'Obviously, the fans are having a tough time moving past that.' Met players and officials were struck by how supportive and mild-mannered the fans were in Arizona, even when the hometown Diamondbacks struggled. It was a far cry from Shea in April, when even 2-1 counts on opposing hitters drew boos. Usually teams are looking forward to playing at home!

The Reds have really struggled away from home, losing their last 5 road games. Washington, too, has been a very different team, with a winning home mark but a poor 4-10 road record. The Yankees are scoring far fewer runs on the road than at home, and notice NY started 12-5 under the total away from Yankee Stadium. The Yanks had the worst schedule in years of any team: because of the Pope's visit they had to play 18 of 20 on the road! For the record, they went 9-9 in those 18 games. Respectable, but more is expected of a team with a $200+ million payroll.

One team looking forward to getting home is the White Sox. They are off a 1-0 loss at the Blue Jays, ending a 0-6 road trip to Minnesota and Toronto. The 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre gave the Sox nine runs in those six losses. Manager Ozzie Guillen said, "I just tell the fans to be patient, that's all. Be patient. The only ones who can believe in this team is me and them. That's why they're fans."

The White Sox are on a 7-0 run under the total, with six of those on the road. They are averaging one run more per game at home. And how about those Twins? Minnesota finished a 6-game road trip at 2-4, then came home and won 5 in a row over the White Sox and Tigers. How's THAT for home cookin'?

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