ESPN can churn out whatever fancy quarterback rating system it wants, but the best gauge of a quarterback’s ability to exceed expectations is his record against the spread.

Pointspreads, as most of you know, are derived to attract equal action on both sides. They are based on the public’s perception of a team. The public’s perception is formed by the media, which paints the picture of what’s expected to happen in a game.

Some QBs are simply better than others at beating those expectations. For example, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are a combined 193-145-17 ATS as starters in the regular season. In contrast, Jay Cutler is 27-42 ATS.

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The team with the best QB more often than not wins the game; the team that wins the game more often than not covers the spread. Sometimes, it’s just that simple.

So as we head into the NFL season, let’s look at how some notable QBs fair against the spread and plan to back or fade them accordingly.

QB WATCH

ATS records are based on regular-season starts.

Drew Brees -- 74-59 ATS

It’s easy to forget that how good he was in San Diego. He was the Chargers’ starter in 15 of 16 games in 2004, when San Diego when 13-1-2 ATS.

Aaron Rodgers – 27-19-1

If he stays at the same level that he ended last year at, Rodgers is the best QB in the league. Super Bowl winners haven’t been the greatest ATS bet the following season, but putting your money behind the crafty Rodgers has proven to be a good investment.

Tony Romo – 30-31-1

The Cowboys were actually a better bet without Romo last season, when he missed nine games with a broken collarbone. Dallas went 1-6 ATS with Romo starting last season and 6-3 ATS without him.

Michael Vick – 41-37-1

Vick’s nothing to go crazy about when it comes to exceeding oddsmakers’ expectations. With the amount of hype the Eagles are receiving, it will be equally difficult to do that this year.

Phillip Rivers – 43-34-3

Rivers can flat out sling it and has been a consistent moneymaker during his five years as a starter for the Chargers.

Kerry Collins – 88-85-5

His mediocre ATS speaks volumes about the veteran, who’s expected to step for an ailing Manning.

Talk about a financial downgrade: While Collins is just over .500, Manning is a robust 107-93-8 ATS.

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