MLB: SOUTHPAW HANDICAPPING
by Scott Spreitzer
There's been a lot of talk in the media of late about how American League teams were "stacking" their left-handed starting pitchers against the New York Yankees. Alex Rodriguez was out of the lineup with an injury. Most of the Yankees big threats were lefty hitters. It made sense that everyone facing the Yankees would throw southpaws at them.
They did. And, it worked until "A-Rod" came back.
Many bettors made money off that Yankees weakness, both by taking opponents and playing Under. What you may not realize is that there are a lot of teams who are currently showing extreme offensive performances in one direction or another against left-handed starters. That matters right now because there are a lot of left-handed starters in rotations!
The Yankees aren't the only team with documented struggles against lefties. And, quite a few have been pounding left-handed starters because they have righty-heavy offenses. As handicappers, it's our job to know the strengths and weaknesses of all 30 offenses.
To help you with this particular area, I compiled team OPS numbers (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) for all 30 major league teams against left-handed pitchers heading into this past weekend. You'll see some stark contrasts. Hopefully you can exploit those in your daily selection process starting immediately.
Let's go league by league because it's easier to absorb the information that way.
AL LEFTY BASHERS (OPS listed)
Boston: .860
Detroit .846
Seattle: .787
Texas: .744
Baltimore: .737
Chicago White Sox: .727
Cleveland: .711
Kansas City: .710
Boston and Detroit just crush left-handed starters. There are a lot of good lefties in the American League, so those are amazing OPS numbers. You'll have better context in a moment when you see how many offenses are struggling. Those teams didn't just break .800, they're up around .850. Seattle's a surprise here because they've been so bad overall. They can't hit righties very well, but light up the scoreboard vs. left-handed pitching. Cleveland and Kansas are more "average" than great. There just aren't that many "average" teams in the AL in this stat right now, so I used a cut off of .700 to separate two groups.
AL LEFTY HATERS
LA Angels: .694
Tampa Bay: .669
Minnesota: .663
NY Yankees: .661
Oakland: .621
Toronto: .616
Almost half the league is under .700 in OPS which is poor indeed considering how many guys bat righty in baseball. You can see why so many teams were stacking the deck against the Yankees. It would make the sense to do the same against any team on this second list. Tampa Bay and Oakland could be in the playoff picture much of the season. This is a weakness they'll have to deal with at some point. I look for the Yankees number to increase now that Rodriguez is back in the lineup. They scored a bunch off of southpaw Erik Bedard on Friday night.
NL LEFTY BASHERS
Chicago Cubs: .871
LA Dodgers: .838
Arizona: .828
Philadelphia: .818
St. Louis .812
Cincinnati: .806
Houston: .802
Milwaukee: .796
Wow…there's a HUGE difference increase in the National League, as fully seven teams crack the .800 barrier even though pitchers bat in this league and don't in the American! Milwaukee just misses making it half the league. What happened? Clearly, the AL has a lot more quality left-handed starters. NL teams face a lower caliber of lefty, and quite a few teams can light them up. Be sure you're looking to take teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks when they face southpaws.
NEUTRAL BY NL STANDARDS
San Francisco: .780
NY Mets: .764
Pittsburgh: .757
These teams obviously weren't good enough to put in the "bashing" category, but were also obviously much better than the NL teams that were struggling. I can't call a team a "lefty hater" with numbers this high. You'll see in a moment there are some NL teams who really struggle against lefties, even against the lower caliber of lefty in the Senior Circuit. Consider the Giants, Mets, and Pirates as neutral.
NL LEFTY HATERS
Colorado: .724
Atlanta: .720
Florida: .654
Washington: .635
San Diego: .616
These five teams should definitely be on your go against list when facing lefties, and that's especially true in Interleague play when facing AL lefties. If you can't hit NL lefties, then you're going to be in big trouble when the live arms from the superior league are on the mound.
I'm confident today's data will help you pick more winners in the coming weeks. I've had great success this year paying attention to these numbers. There are clear differences between how offenses hit one type of pitcher or the other. If you're not making selections with that in mind, you're flying blind to a degree. Keep your eyes open so you can see the winners!
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