At some point in your life, you’ve probably heard the old adage “home is where the heart is.” This school of thought applies to the world of sports as well. The home team, except in extreme cases, is always perceived to have an advantage. Unless the road team is substantially superior, the home side is usually favored. If the teams are perceived to be even, linesmakers give the home team a three-point advantage.
Logic would seem to dictate that an NBA team would be thrilled to come back home after a long road swing. After all, who wants to be away from home for a week or more? Therefore, wouldn’t you want to take the home side in its first game back after a long road swing.
ABSOLUTELY NOT! NBA teams coming off a long road trip perform terribly in their first game back on the home court. For argument’s sake, let’s define “long road trip” as five or more consecutive away games.
Already this season, NBA home teams playing in their first home game following a road trip of five or more games are just 4-11 against the spread. What’s truly astounding is how poor these hosts perform against the pointspread.
Of those 11 pointspread losses, 10 were also of the straight up variety as well. Six of the ten teams that lost straight up were favored in their respective contests! Phoenix, a 13.5-point favorite, lost outright to Miami, 117-113, back on December 10th.
Here is the complete listing to date:
11/14 - Cleveland (-3) lost to Orlando 117-116.
11/21 - Detroit (-10.5) beat New York 98-86.
11/23 – Seattle (+3.5) lost to New Jersey 98-93
11/26 – Golden State (+5) beat Phoenix 129-114
12/7 – Orlando (-8) lost to Indiana 115-109
12/10 – Phoenix (-13.5) lost to Miami 117-113
12/12 – Milwaukee (+5) beat Orlando 100-86
12/13 – Miami (-6) lost to Washington 104-91
12/19 – Seattle (+2.5) lost to New Orleans 107-93
12/23 – Sacramento (-3.5) lost to Denver 106-105
12/26 – Golden State (-12.5) beat Minnesota 105-101, but did not cover
1/2 – Minnesota (+4.5) lost to Portland 90-79
1/4 – Toronto (+4.5) lost to Detroit 101-85
1/8 – Philadelphia (-6.5) lost to Milwaukee 87-83
If you’ve missed out on this great run so far, don’t worry. Just about every team will qualify at least once (Dallas, Memphis and Utah are the 3 exceptions). Some will qualify twice. So, be sure to check your team schedules and circle any home games where a team is coming off a road swing of five or more games. You’ll be glad you did!
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At some point in your life, you’ve probably heard the old adage “home is where the heart is.” This school of thought applies to the world of sports as well. The home team, except in extreme cases, is always perceived to have an advantage. Unless the road team is substantially superior, the home side is usually favored. If the teams are perceived to be even, linesmakers give the home team a three-point advantage.
11/14 - Cleveland (-3) lost to Orlando 117-116.